Valuation Reveals Uncertainty: A Unified Theory of Sublinear Representation and Identification
김한나
129동 104호
0
468
04.27 17:36
| 구분 | 박사학위 논문 발표 |
|---|---|
| 일정 | 2026-05-14(목) 15:30~16:30 |
| 세미나실 | 129동 104호 |
| 강연자 | 박종진 (서울대학교) |
| 담당교수 | 박형빈 |
| 기타 |
What does an observed dynamic sublinear valuation rule reveal about latent uncertainty? We establish that, under natural axioms, it encodes latent information about discounting and state-process laws through the geometry of its local valuation mechanism. From the valuation rule, we recover a generating function describing local valuation responses. Its support sets determine the maximal robust family of discounted state-process laws consistent with observed valuations, while its gradient sets determine, for each smooth test payoff, the locally binding models for valuation. Thus observed valuations set-identify not a single hidden model, but exact uncertainty structures about discounting and state evolution. We also show that this information is recoverable from data: even with a restricted payoff class and discrete maturities, one can characterize the identified region of local uncertainty and consistently recover its maximal counterpart. Valuation therefore contains enough information to identify the uncertainty structures.